Economía y Minería

Seremi de Minería destaca históricas alzas en precio del cobre y el oro que auspicia un escenario propicio para la economía regional

Como “auspiciosas” calificó el seremi de Minería, Cristian Alvayai los recientes resultados de la Bolsa de Metales de Londres respecto de las cotizaciones del cobre y el oro que presentan valores históricos, estos no solo representan un  alivio fiscal para el país sino que también señalan un buen momento para que el mercado reaccione en la reactivación de nuevos proyectos mineros según señalan los análisis elaborados por la Comisión Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco). 

La autoridad de minería destacó el momento que está viviendo el metal rojo señalando que «nuestra prioridad, como gobierno es la generación de empleo y la gran cantidad de proyectos que se llevarán a cabo en nuestra región, nos permitirá dar estabilidad a miles de familias, como sucede con la reciente aprobación de la continuación de proyecto Rajo Inca de Codelco, que asegurará más de 5.000 puestos de trabajo y dará continuidad a la operación por más de 40 años. Vemos con optimismo el futuro próximo” cerró. 

PRECIO DEL COBRE 

De acuerdo con los informes el precio del metal se cotizó sobre los US$3,7 el más alto registrado en los últimos tres años, mostrando un comportamiento al alza con leves variaciones. El precio ya había demostrado un alza permanente desde septiembre del año pasado cotizando el 31 de diciembre en US$3,56 en la Bolsa de Metales de Londres, el precio promedio anual del mineral se situó en US$2,80.  

Los mismos informes detallan que el año finalizó con positivas expectativas para el precio del cobre en 2021 posicionado en valores sobre los actuales hasta mediados de 2022. Lo anterior se debe a factores sociales y económicos como el inicio de la vacunación en Europa, la expectativa de un ciclo fiscal expansivo en la administración del presidente electo J. Biden en Estados Unidos. En tanto la reserva federal mantendría baja la tasa de interés por un periodo prolongado, que, combinado a las políticas de ayuda a los trabajadores desempleados, profundizaría la depreciación del dólar e induciría el alza del precio del cobre. 

Por el lado de la oferta en 2021 la producción mundial retomaría la senda de crecimiento a pesar de que los inventarios de cobre refinado en las bolsas de metales acumulan una baja de 12,7% respecto del cierre del año 2019. No obstante, la fuerte demanda de China extenderá el actual ciclo alcista del precio del cobre. 

“Este es un momento positivo para los proyectos que existen en la región de Atacama, el caso de Enami, Codelco Salvador, Candelaria, Atacama Kozan, Caserones, Pucobre y Manto Verde que pueden aprovechar este ciclo junto a otros que se encuentran en avance pero que se han ralentizado en su concreción como es el caso de Santo Domingo. Pero no solo el cobre presenta una oportunidad para el crecimiento de la economía regional, recordemos que el oro también tiene gran competitividad en el mercado, donde destacan los avances que presentan proyectos como Salares Nortes y La Coipa Fase 7”, agregó el seremi Cristian Alvayai. 

EL PRECIO DEL ORO 

En octubre de 2020 la producción mundial de oro registró una caída de 5,3%, este fenómeno arrojó históricas alzas como ocurrió la última semana de 2020 la bolsa de metales cerró con una cotización de US$1.880,9 la onza. Esta semana el precio se alzó por sobre los US$1.957,2. 
“Es poco probable que una vez que comience a recuperarse el crecimiento en los Estados Unidos se observe una nueva caída de las tasas reales interés. La expansión del PIB del cuarto trimestre de 2020 es clave para determinar la rapidez con que subirán las tasas largas de los bonos del tesoro en los próximos meses. En este escenario, la tendencia más probable para el precio del oro es a la baja. Sin embargo, la incertidumbre está en la velocidad de dicha caída”, señala el Informe de Mercado Minerales y su proyección 2021 y 2022 publicado por Cochilco. 
En el escenario que describe el informe se proyecta para los 2021 y 2022 una baja de 5,9% y 10% en la cotización del oro respectivamente, alcanzando niveles de US$ 1.660 y US$ 1.549 por onza en cada uno de los años, lo que aun así supera el promedio de los años 2019 y 2018. 

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