Mercado corrige con fuerza sus proyecciones y prevé caída del PIB del segundo trimestre de -4,9%
Una fuerte corrección a la baja tuvieron las proyecciones que realizan mes a mes los encuestados por el Banco Central para la formulación de la Encuesta de Expectativas Económicas. Así, en medio del golpe del coronavirus, los consultados estimaron que la economía chilena caerá 2,2% en 2020, muy por debajo del crecimiento de 1,2% que preveían hace un mes. De acuerdo al sondeo, el Indicador Mensual de Actividad Económica (Imacec) de marzo habría anotado una contracción de 2,7%, mientras que para el segundo trimestre del año (abril-junio) los consultados proyectaron que la economía caerá un 4,9%. Respecto a las proyecciones para el PIB de 2021 y 2022, los encuestados coinciden con las estimaciones de una fuerte recuperación, tal como adelantó el Central en el último Informe de Política Monetaria, y las respuestas se cuadraron en que la economía se expanderá un 3% tanto el próximo año como el subsiguiente.
En cuanto al Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), los agentes de mercado pronosticaron que subiría 0,2% en abril y 0,2% mayo. A diciembre de 2020, según los expertos, la inflación se ubicará en 3,2%, bajo el 3,5% previsto en la encuesta anterior.
De acuerdo al sondeo, la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM) se mantendrá en su mínimo técnico de 0,5% por al menos 11 meses más. Los entrevistados ven que la tasa subirá a 1% dentro de 17 meses y que después lo hará hasta 1,25% en 23 meses más.
Respecto al tipo de cambio, los expertos ven el dólar en los $840 dentro de dos meses, en los $800 dentro de 11 meses y en $780 en 23 meses.
Cabe recordar que la EEE se envía a un selecto grupo de académicos, consultores y ejecutivos o asesores de instituciones financieras. Se cierra al día siguiente de conocerse el IPC del mes anterior y los resultados se publican al día siguiente de su recepción. En este caso se envió el 3 de abril y se recibió el 9 del mismo mes.
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