IPoM: Se profundiza la recesión prevista para 2023 y se estima que economía podría caer hasta 1,5%
*El ente rector publicó este miércoles su tercer Informe de Política Monetaria del año, en el cual elevó levemente su proyección de crecimiento para la economía en 2022, ubicando el rango entre 1,75 y 2,25%.
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El Banco Central publicó este miércoles su tercer Informe de Política Monetaria (IPoM) del año, en el cual elevó levemente su proyección de crecimiento para la economía en 2022, ubicando el rango entre 1,75 y 2,25%. En junio, el instituto emisor esperaba una expansión del PIB de entre 1,5 y 2,25%.
Eso sí, la entidad presidida por Rosanna Costa ve altamente probable Chile entre en recesión en 2023, y el PIB anote una variación de entre -1,5 y -0,5% (más bajo que el -1,0 y 0% previsto en el IPoM anterior), para luego crecer entre 2,25 y 3,25% en 2024, estimación que se mantiene desde junio. «En el escenario central, la economía crecerá por debajo de su potencial por varios trimestres más, con lo que la brecha seguirá reduciéndose y se ubicará en niveles negativos a partir de fines de este año», apuntó el ente rector en su informe. También menciona que la proyección de la actividad considera que «el consumo privado seguirá ajustándose, resultado que en parte importante se deriva del fin de las abultadas medidas de apoyo a los ingresos adoptadas en 2021, así como de la restrictividad de la política monetaria». Mientras que en la inversión se anticipa «un débil desempeño durante lo que queda de 2022 y todo 2023, reflejo de condiciones financieras menos favorables, un mayor pesimismo de las empresas, un tipo de cambio real más elevado y una incertidumbre que desciende, pero lentamente». De hecho, el Banco Central no considera efectos específicos en la economía tras el triunfo del Rechazo en el Plebiscito, lo que supone que «la incertidumbre irá reduciéndose gradualmente en los próximos trimestres, en medio de un proceso donde los cambios institucionales continúan, permitiendo un funcionamiento adecuado de las instituciones y de la economía».
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