Mercado empeora sus proyecciones para 2020 y anticipa desplome de más de 8% para el IMACEC de abril
Una nueva corrección a la baja tuvieron las proyecciones que realizan mes a mes los agentes de mercado consultados para la formulación de la Encuesta de Expectativas Económicas del Banco Central. Así, en medio del golpe de la pandemia del covid-19, los expertos estimaron que el PIB de Chile caerá 2,7% en 2020, peor que la contracción de 2,2% que preveían hace un mes.
De acuerdo al sondeo, el Indicador Mensual de Actividad Económica (Imacec) de abril habría anotado una baja de 8,10%, aunque hubo encuestados que dijeron que la economía del cuarto mes del año habría caído hasta 12%: Respecto al crecimiento del segundo trimestre del año (abril-junio), los expertos rebajaron con fuerza sus estimaciones previas y anticiparon que la economía se contraerá 7,4%, por debajo de la caída de 4,9% que adelantaban en abril. En cuanto a las proyecciones para el PIB de 2021 y 2022, los consultados coinciden con las estimaciones del Central de una fuerte recuperación y las respuestas apuntan a que el próximo año la economía crecerá 3,5%, por sobre el 3% previsto en la EEE previa, y que el subsiguiente la expansión será de 3%. En cuanto al Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), los agentes de mercado pronosticaron que subiría 0% en mayo y 0% junio. A diciembre de 2020, según los expertos, la inflación se ubicará en 2,7%, bajo el 3,2% previsto en la encuesta anterior. De acuerdo al sondeo, la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM) se mantendrá en su mínimo técnico de 0,5% por al menos 11 meses más. Los entrevistados ven que la tasa subirá a 0,75% dentro de 17 meses y que después lo hará hasta 1,25% en 23 meses más. 5%sería el repunte de la inversión en 2021 según la EEE
Por el lado de la Formación Bruta de Capital Fijo, ítem agregando en esta encuesta, los expertos proyectaron que la inversión caerá 8,3% en 2020 -levemente por debajo de la proyección del IPoM de marzo que anticipa una baja de 8,2%- y que repuntará con un crecimiento de 5% en 2021. Respecto al tipo de cambio, los agentes ven el dólar en el cruce local en $830 dentro de dos meses, en $800 dentro de 11 meses y en $775 dentro de 23 meses más. Cabe recordar que la EEE se envía a un selecto grupo de académicos, consultores y ejecutivos o asesores de instituciones financieras. Se cierra al día siguiente de conocerse el IPC del mes anterior y los resultados se publican al día siguiente de su recepción. En este caso se envió el 5 de mayo y se recibió el 11 del mismo mes de 2020.
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